Euro 2024 - Top Goalscorer…

When it comes to landing the top scorer award at major International tournaments, the magic number is 6 goals…

When the World Cup was a 24-team format, from 1982 - 1994. The top scorer tallies from each competition were as follows:

Top Scorers = 6, 6, 6, 6 (tie)

The Euros moved to 24 nations in 2016. The results that year and in the delayed 2020 event being:

Top Scorers = 6, 5 (tie)

What we’re looking for is a player to hit 5 or 6 goals to put themselves in serious contention for the Top Goalscorer gong. With recent history showing that 4 goals is a strong showing when it comes to staking a claim for some of the Each Way place money…

The official UEFA award for Golden Boot goes to the top-scoring player, with a tie decided by Assists. Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are betting on the Golden Boot - and going 1/5 odds Each Way for 1-5 places.

But in general, pretty much all other mainstream bookies are settling this market with Dead Heat rules in the event of a tie for Top Goalscorer - with standard Each Way terms of 1/4 odds for 1-4 places.

A man with credentials at 18/1…

We want to back a player with the potential to make hay over three games in a ‘soft’ Euro 2024 Group. And ideally a player representing a nation that can go deep in the tournament, to the quarter finals or beyond…

At the last European Championship, Czech Republic (now known as Czechia) reached the quarters - and Czech forward Patrik Schick was the surprise package in the Top Goalscorer market. Finishing level on 5 goals with Cristiano Ronaldo, with the Portuguese superstar taking the Golden Boot prize courtesy of having more Assists.

That strange, Covid-era summer (when Euro 2020 was played in 2021), Romelu Lukaku finished on 4 goals, just one strike behind Ronaldo and Schick. Belgium reached the quarter finals…

At the World Cup 2018 in Russia, Lukaku once again hit 4 goals, for a slice of the Each Way returns. Only 6-goal Golden Boot winner Harry Kane scored more. Belgium got to the semi finals…

At the Qatar World Cup in winter 2022, Belgium flopped badly. And Lukaku entered the tournament as a big fitness doubt, carrying a thigh injury. He ended up making just two appearances, both cameos from the subs’ bench - and scoring no goals. Since then, however, Belgium have had a refresh, with a new manager, and Romelu has been banging in the goals once again for club & country…

Lukaku was top scorer in Euro 2024 Qualifying - not just for Belgium, but across all nations…

He racked up 14 goals in 8 games. Putting him clear of Ronaldo (10 goals in 9 games), France’s Kylian Mbappe (9 goals in 8 games), and England’s Harry Kane (8 goals in 8 games). Those three just so happen to be the three favourites in the Top Goalscorer betting for the main event this summer - with Mbappe at 5/1 (6.0), Kane at 11/2 (6.5), and then Ronaldo at 12/1…

Lukaku was also his country’s top scorer in Qualifying for the last World Cup. At odds of 18/1 Each Way for Euro 2024, the 31-year-old, penalty-taking striker ticks a lot of boxes for us…

At club level, Lukaku has got into double figures for goals scored in 10 of the last 11 seasons, all coming in either the English Premier League or Italy’s Serie A. The one campaign where he didn’t reach that mark was for Chelsea in 2021/22, where his 8 goals came from just 16 starts - the fewest number of starts on that 11-season list.

In that time, Romelu successfully converted 19 out of 22 penalties overall in the Premier League/ Serie A.

If we take out his injury-marred visit to Qatar in 2022. Lukaku has bothered the Each Way, Top 4 places in his last two ‘full’ major International tournaments for Belgium, at Euro 2020 and World Cup 2018…

With a favourable-looking Group at Euro 2024 next month, and the potential for the draw to pair Belgium against an opponent such as Serbia in the first knockout, Last 16 round (dependent on results, of course). The big striker can make his mark once again…

Belgium are priced as odds-on favourites to win Group E, where they face Ukraine, Romania, and Slovakia. I’ve described Lukaku as a ‘flat-track bully’ in the past; I’d be happy for him to live up to that billing this summer, if it means the bulk of his goals coming against the less-glitzy opponents on the roster…

A brace or a hat-trick in a group-stage match, for example, can catapult a player to the top of the scorer standings – and propel them to the front of the betting.

The numbers suggest that Lukaku has a solid chance of putting himself in the mix come the halfway stage of the tournament. And after that, fitness-permitting of course, he’ll be a favourite to score for Belgium, whoever they come up against.

The bookmakers have Romelu as the clear market leader in the ante-post betting to be Belgium’s ‘Top Team Goalscorer.’ With Bet365 at 10/11 (1.91), Skybet at 5/6 (1.83), and William Hill and BetVictor also going odds-on. For now, we’ll start things off by taking a bigger price: Lukaku at 18/1 Each Way for tournament Top Goalscorer…

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Euro 2024 

Top Goalscorer - Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Romelu Lukaku @ 18/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Betway

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question. 

Prices correct as of 4th June 2024.

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